Kalman Filters (KF) are fundamental to real-time state estimation applications, including radar-based tracking systems used in modern driver assistance and safety technologies. In a linear dynamical system with Gaussian noise distributions the KF is the optimal estimator. However, real-world systems often deviate from these assumptions. This deviation combined with the success of deep learning across many disciplines has prompted the exploration of data driven approaches that leverage deep learning for filtering applications. These learned state estimators are often reported to outperform traditional model based systems. In this work, one prevalent model, KalmanNet, was selected and evaluated on automotive radar data to assess its performance under real-world conditions and compare it to an interacting multiple models (IMM) filter. The evaluation is based on raw and normalized errors as well as the state uncertainty. The results demonstrate that KalmanNet is outperformed by the IMM filter and indicate that while data-driven methods such as KalmanNet show promise, their current lack of reliability and robustness makes them unsuited for safety-critical applications.

A unique approach for the mid-air autonomous aerial interception of non-cooperating UAV by a flying robot equipped with a net is presented in this paper. A novel interception guidance method dubbed EPN is proposed, designed to catch agile maneuvering targets while relying on onboard state estimation and tracking. The proposed method is compared with state-of-the-art approaches in simulations using 100 different trajectories of the target with varying complexity comprising almost 14 hours of flight data, and EPN demonstrates the shortest response time and the highest number of interceptions, which are key parameters of agile interception. To enable robust transfer from theory and simulation to a real-world implementation, we aim to avoid overfitting to specific assumptions about the target, and to tackle interception of a target following an unknown general trajectory. Furthermore, we identify several often overlooked problems related to tracking and estimation of the target's state that can have a significant influence on the overall performance of the system. We propose the use of a novel state estimation filter based on the IMM filter and a new measurement model. Simulated experiments show that the proposed solution provides significant improvements in estimation accuracy over the commonly employed KF approaches when considering general trajectories. Based on these results, we employ the proposed filtering and guidance methods to implement a complete autonomous interception system, which is thoroughly evaluated in realistic simulations and tested in real-world experiments with a maneuvering target going far beyond the performance of any state-of-the-art solution.

The performance of data fusion and tracking algorithms often depends on parameters that not only describe the sensor system, but can also be task-specific. While for the sensor system tuning these variables is time-consuming and mostly requires expert knowledge, intrinsic parameters of targets under track can even be completely unobservable until the system is deployed. With state-of-the-art sensor systems growing more and more complex, the number of parameters naturally increases, necessitating the automatic optimization of the model variables. In this paper, the parameters of an interacting multiple model (IMM) filter are optimized solely using measurements, thus without necessity for any ground-truth data. The resulting method is evaluated through an ablation study on simulated data, where the trained model manages to match the performance of a filter parametrized with ground-truth values.

This paper is to consider the problems of estimation and recognition from the perspective of sigma-max inference (probability-possibility inference), with a focus on discovering whether some of the unknown quantities involved could be more faithfully modeled as fuzzy uncertainty. Two related key issues are addressed: 1) the random-fuzzy dual interpretation of unknown quantity being estimated; 2) the principle of selecting sigma-max operator for practical problems, such as estimation and recognition. Our perspective, conceived from definitions of randomness and fuzziness, is that continuous unknown quantity involved in estimation with inaccurate prior should be more appropriately modeled as randomness and handled by sigma inference; whereas discrete unknown quantity involved in recognition with insufficient (and inaccurate) prior could be better modeled as fuzziness and handled by max inference. The philosophy was demonstrated by an updated version of the well-known interacting multiple model (IMM) filter, for which the jump Markovian System is reformulated as a hybrid uncertainty system, with continuous state evolution modeled as usual as model-conditioned stochastic system and discrete mode transitions modeled as fuzzy system by a possibility (instead of probability) transition matrix, and hypotheses mixing is conducted by using the operation of "max" instead of "sigma". For our example of maneuvering target tracking using simulated data from both a short-range fire control radar and a long-range surveillance radar, the updated IMM filter shows significant improvement over the classic IMM filter, due to its peculiarity of hard decision of system model and a faster response to the transition of discrete mode.